Mortgage rates in 2026: what's actually moving them
Headline rates make great news. They make terrible decision-making tools. Here's what to watch instead.
The Bank of England base rate gets most of the headlines, but it's only one of four things moving the rate you'll actually pay.
The four levers
Swap rates, lender competition, your loan-to-value, and your credit history all play a bigger role than people realise. The base rate is the floor — your personal rate is the floor plus a stack of risk premiums.
What's happened in 2026
Swap rates eased in Q1 as inflation data came in below expectations. That feeds through to 2- and 5-year fixed offers within weeks, not months. We've seen lenders cut fixed rates four times this year.
Should you fix?
If you value certainty and your monthly budget is tight, yes. A 2-year fix gives you headroom to remortgage when conditions ease without locking you in too long.